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Scenario 2 Background.pdf The Bears Gambit 2 “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.” Abraham Lincoln Operation Cautious Tightrope By Nike-Ajax, All Rights reserved DTG 151300ZOCT18 “Maskirovka” Russian military deception, sometimes known as Maskirovka (маскировка), is a military doctrine developed from the start of the twentieth century, but building on older theories and concepts. The doctrine covers a broad range of measures for military deception, ranging from camouflage to denial and deception. And also in the later years it has to an increasing degree, included Cyberwarfare in different forms. Deceptive measures include concealment, imitation with decoys and dummies, manoeuvres intended to deceive, denial, and disinformation. The 1944 Soviet Military Encyclopedia refers to "means of securing combat operations and the daily activities of forces; a complexity of measures, directed to mislead the enemy regarding the presence and disposition of forces..." Later versions of the doctrine also include strategic, political, and diplomatic means including manipulation of "the facts", situation and perceptions to affect the media and opinion around the world, so as to achieve or facilitate tactical, strategic, national and international goals. Deception contributed to major Soviet victories including the Battle of Stalingrad, the Battle of Kursk, and Operation Bagration (in Belarus): in these cases, surprise was achieved despite very large concentrations of force, both in attack and in defence. The doctrine has also been put into practice in peacetime, with denial and deception operations in events such as the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Prague Spring, and the annexation of Crimea. The Russian doctrine of military deception has evolved with time, and it encompasses a number of meanings. The Russian term маскировка (Maskirovka) literally means masking. An early military meaning was camouflage, soon extended to battlefield masking using smoke and other methods of screening. From there it came to have the broader meaning of military deception, widening to include denial and deception. And today using the full spectrum of information warfare, at which the Russians are adept, as well as using non-military forces. “What must NATO do to counter President Putin? Maskirovka is the traditional Russian use of military deception and Russia’s seizure of Ukraine-Crimea and incursion into eastern Ukraine is just the beginning of a new multi-dimensional Russian challenge to NATO and the West. Moscow has established a new level of ambition – strategic Maskirovka – by which disinformation is applied against all levels of NATO’s command chain and wider public opinion to keep the West politically and militarily off-balance. First, NATO’s strongest military powers must demonstrate the will and the capacity to meet the Russian challenge. Second, NATO, an alliance of democracies, must re-establish itself at the core of a world-wide web of secure, mutually-reinforcing democracies anchored on the United States. Third, defence expenditure of all the NATO allies must move towards 2% GDP and quickly. Fourth, the Alliance must mean what it says. Strategic unity of effort and purpose is key to deterring Russia. Fifth, Europeans must take the lead in efforts to convince President Putin that Russia has nothing to gain from such an aggressive strategy. President Putin is an opportunist. He believes that the West is decadent and declining and that his use of strategic Maskirovka can keep the Allies sufficiently divided and politically off-balance to enable him to achieve his primary strategic objective: the creation of a new Russian centric sphere of influence around Russia’s borders and the ending of ‘frozen conflicts’ in Eastern Europe and Central Asia in Russia’s favour. Putin also believes that whatever weapon systems NATO has at its disposal, Europeans are so weak and divided that little or no military action will ever be taken against him. Putin may be right and his gamble (for that is what it is) could pay off if the Alliance does not stand firm and act together.” From “NATO: Countering Strategic Maskirovka” by Julian Lindley-French, May 2015 This is now also a part of what some have dubbed “Hybrid Warfare”. Wikipedia shallowly defines it as: A non-standard, complex, and fluid adversary. A hybrid adversary can be state or non-state. For example, in the Israel–Hezbollah War and the Syrian Civil War the main adversaries are non-state entities within the state system. These non-state actors can act as proxies for countries but have independent agendas as well. For example, Iran is a sponsor of Hezbollah but it was Hezbollah’s, not Iran’s, agenda that resulted in the kidnapping of Israeli troops that led to the Israel–Hezbollah war. On the other hand, Russian involvement in Ukraine can be described as a traditional state actor waging a hybrid war (in addition to using a local hybrid proxy). Note that Russia denies involvement in the Ukraine conflict. A hybrid adversary uses a combination of conventional and irregular methods. Methods and tactics include conventional capabilities, irregular tactics, irregular formations, terrorist acts, indiscriminate violence, and criminal activity. A hybrid adversary also uses clandestine actions to avoid attribution or retribution. These methods are used simultaneously across the spectrum of conflict with a unified strategy. A current example is the Islamic State’s transnational aspirations, blended tactics, structured formations, and cruel use of terror as part of their arsenal. A hybrid adversary is flexible and adapts quickly. For example, the Islamic State’s response to the U.S. aerial bombing campaign was to quickly reduce the use of checkpoints, large convoys, and cell phones. IS militants also dispersed among the civilian population. Civilian collateral damage from airstrikes can be used as an effective recruiting tool. A hybrid adversary uses advanced weapons systems and other disruptive technologies. These weapons can be now bought at bargain prices. Moreover, other novel technologies are being adapted to the battlefield such as cellular networks. In 2006, Hezbollah was armed with high-tech weaponry, such as precision guided missiles, that nation-states typically use. Hezbollah forces shot down Israeli helicopters, severely damaged a patrol boat with a cruise missile and destroyed heavily armored tanks by firing guided missiles from hidden bunkers. The organization also used aerial drones to gather intelligence, communicated with encrypted cell phones and watched Israeli troop movements with thermal night-vision equipment. Use of mass communication for propaganda. The growth of mass communication networks offers powerful propaganda and recruiting tools. The use of fake news websites to spread false stories is an element of hybrid warfare. A hybrid war takes place on three distinct battlefields: the conventional battlefield, the indigenous population of the conflict zone, and the international community This however is no longer a theoretical debate, as recent events in Lithuania have shown. It has been almost a month since the clash in SE Lithuania between Lithuanian Servicemen and parts of TF-32 on one side and Insurgents and what is believed to be Russian Federal Army SOF forces on the other. Debate has been raging since on what exactly happened. Russia has claimed that the events of about four weeks ago, was entirely the fault of Lithuania and NATO. The have stated that insurgents, whom the Russians claim only have armed themselves to protect their families, only fired back in self-defence AFTER having been engaged by NATO and other units with heavy weapons. Moreover they have sent journalists to the hospitals where young injured Russian-speaking men lay wounded, and under guard. They have also covered the events massively on all the Russian controlled networks, including among others the English speaking Russia Today (RT), and have said that this is merely the last in a long line of provocations from the west, with the goal of drawing Russia into a conflict she does not want. They also deny having any servicemen as part of the clash, but added “that they could understand why patriots felt a need to defend their brothers and sisters”. Russia have also cautioned against making or spreading “unfounded rumours that can create real problems and threats” and disseminating of “False News”. Russian has in fact called for reparations and an official excuse for what they dubbed “an aggressive and brutish act of international Thuggery” and “An unprovoked crime against the peace”. Russian president Putin, in a poke against the west, has stated: “We neither can nor will build a Wall against the West in general and the Baltic States in particular, why would we: the problem is that many Ethnic Russian have for generations lived peacefully in The Baltic States. It is not we would build walls” Russian diplomats have worked overtime with bilateral discussions with EU as well as all European nations and other nations and geopolitical entities – with a notable exception of the Baltic States and Poland, which have expelled all Russian diplomats and diplomatic personnel. Some nations have been more sympathetic or understanding to the Russian cause, with France as the biggest claiming that Russia needs to “Not be treated like a “Pariah” nor “Provoked unduly” or “forced into a position of using military force”. This in turn has led many of the former WAPA nations in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States, to call for re-evaluation of French membership of NATO. The Polish foreign Minister has gone so far as to say that “NATO would be a better place without the French” and that “They would do everyone a favour by leaving it again, this time permanently” as well as stating that “The French are always there for you – when they need you”. These polemic statements have caused condemnation and outrage not only from the French. The Lithuanian Defence minister, when asked to comment upon this, quoted Jed Babbin in saying: “Going to war without France apparently IS like going deer hunting without an accordion. You just leave a lot of useless noisy baggage behind.” These statements understandably, have further enraged the French and have not made the French any more inclined to support the Baltic States nor Poland. Also many left and Centre left wing newspapers across Europe have warned against warmongering and called for restraint and calm discussions. This wish has been mirrored by many political parties in the European states, mostly but not exclusively from the political left. Anti-war demonstrations with small but dedicated groupings have been held across Europe, by ANTIFA and other groupings. Many of these have turned or were violent at their outset, causing massive damage. Turkey has stated that they consider this a local problem, and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has stated that Turkey is hard-pressed “to see the validity of the claims against Russia”. Moreover Turkey has said that in the current political climate they feel more welcomed and accepted by Russia, than by EU. And that Europe and USA does not accept anyone but themselves, and condemn anyone who does not mirror them. Turkey has also stated that they are tired of western interference in general and in Turkish matters and policy in particular. The Scandinavian countries have quietly further reinforced their military presence in the Baltics and have discreetly started calling in what little reserves they have. USA has reinforced their garrisons in Europe and raised their military alert level, but has otherwise not clearly backed one side or the other. America claims that Europe needs to stand together, before USA can stand with them. American President Trump quoted Matthew 12:22-28; “Every kingdom divided against its self is brought to desolation, and every city or house divided against its self will not stand”. This however have not seemed to shift the political resolve in Europe. Rather it has led to some commentators stating that the American President should take care of his own house first and that his advice is uncalled for and unwanted. This position have that been supported by some European politicians across EU most of whom but not all are left-wing. Europe stands divided, but so does UN, where any attempt of getting a resolution passed that condemned the Russian actions, let alone one that would actually stop it, have been blocked by Veto by both China and Russia. EU and UN as a whole thus De Facto stands totally powerless, even though the debate rages on in both the UN general assembly and the EU Parliament, words are all they have produced for now. Some European nations have unilaterally and quietly started further raising the readiness of their military forces, and recalling limited reserves without making any overt threats, and trying to do it without provoking Russia and escalating the situation in general. In this process many European politicians and civil servants have discovered to their chagrin and for some of them horror, that decades of cost savings have in fact left them precious little to reactivate and too few soldiers to reactivate or even to man the precious few planes, ships and Tanks that they do have. And that many needed core military competencies and equipment cannot be reactivated on anything close to short notice. Something the soldiers, airmen and sailors have known and warned about for years, if not decades. No politicians or civil servants have taken any actual blame or responsibility for this as neither national parliaments nor the European Parliament can agree on the causes or consequences of what is happening. And therefore it is very difficult if not impossible to agree on a solution or strategy. Thus Europe and NATO stands divided and ill prepared should talks fail... The powder keg is primed for the first spark. SITUATION In the time following the clash in Southern Lithuania, Russian units have increased their presence on all the borders of the Baltic States as well as on the borders of Poland. Byelorussia has given Russia full support and liberty to move troops through their nation, as well as giving them command of elements of the Byelorussian military forces. The TF´s of JEF have been reinforced and rearmed, and have been shifted to an AO around and to the West of Vilkaviškis, in SW Lithuania, where they along with other units, have been tasked with providing over watch, recon and security to the area around the Russian/Lithuanian border less than 20 km. to the west. 2 days ago, Russian forces were seen begin massing in Kaliningrad, in the vicinity of Nesterov, along Route E28. Intent seems unclear at this time. But there is a risk that it is a precursor to an attack to cut of Vilnius from E and NE, including Kaunas. EU and NATO have activated and deployed some forces, but have yet to declare war or invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter, due to political disagreements. However TF-48, already in the general area, has been rushed to a blocking position NV of Marijampolè, around Vilkaviškis. TF-48, primarily made up of British units, has been tasked with providing Recon and security along the border with Russian controlled Kaliningrad further to the west. For political reasons the western forces have been instructed to use a light footprint and not to provoke or escalate the situation. Rules of Engagement NOTHING IN THESE RULES OF ENGAGEMENT LIMITS YOUR RIGHT TO TAKE APPROPIATE ACTION TO DEFEND YOURSELF AND YOUR UNIT. A. You have the right to use force to defend yourself against attacks or clear threats of attack. B. Hostile fire may be returned effectively and promptly to stop a hostile act. C. If OWN forces or those under their protection are attacked, then minimum force should be used under the circumstances and proportional to the threat. D. We are not at war and in an allied nation, uncalled for destruction of civilian property will not be accepted. E. Under NO circumstances are you allowed to cross the border, or risk crossing the border, so as not to provoke Russian forces or give them an excuse to start hostilities. F. Under NO circumstances are you allowed to use artillery across the border, so as not to provoke Russian forces or give them an excuse to start hostilities.

Hello everybody, as promised then here is the Intermission between Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, as well as the AAR. Next scenario in this Campaign will be held on Sunday the 4´th of february at the usual time of 2000 GMT+1 This is the Game list: http://www.kanium.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=11630&sid=9cb0393903efbeca6e39dd3254570c7d#p11630 And the PDF: BG Intermission 1.pdf And the AAR: BG Scenario 1 Operation Red Route 1.aar The Bears Gambit ” Speak softly, and carry a big stick." Theodore Roosevelt Jr. Intermission 1 By Nike-Ajax, All Rights reserved “Why?” The word was softly spoken, but the undertones were anything but. The men sitting on the other side of the desk looked at each other, seeking strength from the company. But as the president looked at them one at a time his blue eyes seemed to strip them of both security and strength. The men did not wish to be here, at least not with this message. And right now they all felt very alone. “No? No one wants to take responsibility for this fiasco? Then allow me to outline what happened: As part of our Hybrid war, then it was your responsibility to discreetly and with no ties to our Beloved Rodina, support and safeguard our patriotic brothers in, what is in spirit and soon will be in fact, an integral part of our Motherland. You were to do this in a low key way, and in such a way that you would not disturb the near abroad. It is not that you engaged militarily with our enemies: it was that you did it in such a clumsy way and left too many clues that NATO, EU and the Baltic Nations can use against us and as a rallying cry. Like in Ukraine we needed the world to see that this is not us against them, but rather them against Russian citizens. And in the process highlight and showcase western hypocrisy as well as weakness. In failing to achieve this, then you have limited our options and forced ahead our schedule.” He thoughtfully raised his glass of tea and sipped it, while he contemplated the plans, time schedules and windows of opportunity. One of the men looked at the others, cleared his throat, and spoke up: “My President, we tried to obscure any ties to ourselves. We used American vehicles that we bought from Iran, who got them from Iraq. We used weapons that are widely distributed, and even got some American Javelins. True that we had some Russian vehicles, including reconnaissance vehicles, but nothing that can be directly tied to Russia. Our Spetznas wasn’t directly involved in the operation, which might have changed the outcome more positively in our favor. But even though the convoy got through, then we still inflicted heavy losses on them which politically will be a hard pill to swallow for a Europe gone soft” The President of Russia looked at the man without malice, and perhaps even with kindness. After all he had the courage to speak up and be honest, something which should always be encouraged. Then he turned to the assembled men, while he collected his thoughts. “Gentlemen … this is not the Soviet union: we do not send people to Gulag or have them shot in the back of the head while passing through a door in the basement of Lubyanka and Vasily Blokhin is not waiting outside. But despite your efforts, then you need to do better: Not just for me, but for your country, your grandchildren and all those who sacrificed everything to bring us here. We are at a critical juncture and even though we have been careful and planned meticulously, then no matter how we planned this, then we knew that there would come a decisive time when we could no longer work in the shadows. We are very close but timing and context are everything. If we stumble and fall now, then it will take another revolution to save the Motherland. A revolution the outcome of which no one can predict, other than it would hurt our Motherland. Now: this means we will move our plans forward. The die is cast. You will ready our troops while we step up our diplomatic efforts as well as sow discord in their ranks in accordance with the concept of Hybrid Warfare.” The men looked both relieved and determined, and this time they all met his gaze squarely and nodded. The rest of the meeting served to iron out their plans and deadlines as well as adjust what needed to change. When they left and after the door had closed then the man laid his hands on his desk and sighed … so much time and sacrifice had gone into this. Sometimes he doubted if he had the strength to fulfill his country’s destiny. But he could not allow himself the weakness of doubting the road they were on. He took a deep breath and raised his gaze while he clenched his teeth. Then he grabbed his telephone and started making calls. “They did WHAT?” The high-ranking EU official glared at his subordinate as if he could somehow will him away, and thereby make the problem disappear. The man in front of him pursed his lips, and looked at his papers: “Soldiers of the Joint Expeditionary Force two days ago engaged in what amounted to a running battle with what they have described as well-equipped and well-trained insurgents. They claim that there are numerous clues and evidence that points to Russian support including the weapons that were used. Moreover they have stated that they used minimum force in accordance with their Rules of Engagement and that they showed restraint in the face of an armed military attack” The subordinate civil servant wished that he was somewhere else and he comptemplated different excuses for leaving the office, but none would hold up to the fury of his boss. He knew that the man in front of him had little patience for anything that did not go according to his plans and wishes. The senior official looked as if he was close to a heart attack, his mouth opening and closing repeatedly, which due to his considerable bulk, unwittingly made him look somewhat like a catfish pulled onto land. Not that his subordinate would ever dare say that aloud – his boss was not known for his sense of humor or for his forgiving nature. The senior official slammed his hand hard into the table, which startled the other man. “If those damn soldiers had used their heads instead of acting like the unenlightened brutes that they are, then we would have more political options. Don’t the Jarheads understand just how much money the west has invested in Russia or how long we have worked for a political long-term solution with them?” The subordinate did not want to point out that these were not US Marines but rather mostly Scandinavian soldiers. Nor that the civilian and military authorities in both the JEF and Lithuania backed up the report made by the commanding officer. In fact he was concerned, as there was something he couldn’t quite put his finger on; some nagging thought that he couldn’t quite formulate about the whole incident. Well … He knew better than to jeopardize his career and future by picking lost causes. Better to agree with his boss. “Yes sir, I agree completely. But it seems that there isn’t anything we can use to force the soldiers of the JEF out on the Baltics, as the Baltic Nations are in fact calling for more resources and soldiers to help with their defense. And the Lithuanian Authorities have already released much of the evidence as well as statements from locals. And not just to us, but also to the international media” His superior looked as if another heart attack was imminent, and the leaned forward over the table as if to give his words more weight: “They must be quite mad if they think we are going to escalate this further. We need the soldiers out of there – and now – and have this turned over to the proper authorities such as The Permanent Structured Cooperation and The Common Security and Defence Policy in our EU aegis. We need to control this politically and based on dialogue. So … how soon can we have them out?” The lower Civil Servant, who in fact wasn’t so low on the ladder, moved uncomfortably in his seat while he desperately looked for an answer that would satisfy the older man. Having found none, he deflated and with an even voice gave the only answer he could, knowing that it would send his boss into another rage: “Sir … I am sorry, but we can’t do that. The JEF is not an EU institution or organization, and the United Kingdom is formally on its way out of EU. Also the Baltic States as well as Poland have made it crystal clear that they want JEF on the ground … and NATO as well. In fact yesterday they went as far as to state, that the EU is not yet ready if ever to take over any defense, let alone in this situation. And that they put their trust in JEF and the pact of NATO, and that they are willing to invoke Article V if need be. They have also said that this is the last line in a series of Russian provocations, and as an example says that the Baltic States had to scramble fighter planes 130 times in 2017 alone to repel Russian combat airplanes from their airspace”. He took a deep breath and awaited the reaction which was not long in the making. The face of the senior official seemed to go through several shades of red and purple, before he answered: “The damn fools. Don’t they understand that we are in the 21´st century and that we don’t solve conflicts with war? We cannot just let loose the rabid dogs of war. Well … they will not get the help from us to do their warmongering. We need to prepare a political solution for the politicians to go over. It is going to be along night. ” The junior civil servant nodded. Inwardly he cringed at the thought of having to call his wife to tell her that dinner and movie was cancelled. Meanwhile in Lithuania, then the soldiers from JEF were tired, with days of uncertainty and inaction being abruptly ended with the violent clash in southern Lithuanian. They all knew what they signed up for, all of them being volunteers. But the scale and ferocity of the fighting still had surprised most of them. Like many military actions it had been a question of hurry up and wait, with periods of almost boredom broken with frantic and violent action. The action which had left at least the equivalent of 3 companies of insurgents dead, added to which were a number of wounded and captured. But this was far from all: almost 20 enemy vehicles destroyed including a BRDM, 5 technicals as well as at least five Cougar MRAPs and another five RG-31s destroyed. This came as a chock to the countries of manufacture, and has spawned an international investigation. Added to this then some of the dead insurgents were found in the possession of American made FGM-148 Javelin AT missiles. USA has vehemently and forcibly denied any and all involvement and has enraged started their own investigations into how these weapons and vehicles found their way to Lithuania. This did not stop the convoy, which managed to arrive almost intact at the government stores. However this did come at a cost: One M113 and one CV9040 were destroyed, along with their crews and a STRV122 was very heavily damaged. More vehicles were damaged and some civilians also lost their life in the clashes. In all 16 Soldiers of the JEF was killed and another 11 wounded – some of them severely. This is a hard blow to nations who are used to the lower intensity COIN operations in places like Afghanistan and Iraq. Russia in the meantime has tried to claim that these weapons show that the insurgents at least in part were supplied by the Americans. This is something which very few outside Russia believe however. This is reinforced by the fact that a number of Russian speaking insurgents have been interrogated, of which at least some are former Russian soldiers. Also the Lithuanian authorities have searched the remains of the vehicles as well as having made numerous arrests, have released documents which indirectly implicate a number of former and serving Russian officers. This includes Colonel General Nikolai Fedorovich Tkachev, a person that has also had alleged links with the downing of the Civilian airplane MH17 over Ukraine by a Russian BUK missile launcher. But all this is politics. The soldiers on the ground just know that they have been rudely awoken to the fact that the conflict is now more than showing the flag. Many of them are veterans primarily from deployments to places like Iraq and Afghanistan, and they were used to dealing with stressful situation. But the conflict has moved very close now. It is one thing to fight an enemy in battle thousands of kilometers from your home and loved ones. But it is quite another to do so with the threat of escalation that could directly endanger their families, friends and countries. The men and women cast glances among each other while they cleaned and serviced their equipment. Nobody said anything, but they all thought the same: Not us, not now and not a real war. It is not that they were cowards – far from it. But courage is doing what needs to be done, even when you are scared. And the apprehension that could be felt everywhere in camp was built on a very real threat. They all wished that they had more weapons and soldiers. But they would do their duty with what they had. Nobody wanted to say the words, but everyone thought about the same: World War Three?